超预期！多家公募最新解读！

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant market reactions, with major stock indices in Hong Kong and the US experiencing substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the easing of trade tensions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Adjustments - The adjustment of tariffs has exceeded market expectations, providing a clear signal of easing tensions. This is attributed to the US's reliance on Chinese supply chains and China's growing comprehensive national strength, which is expected to boost market risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - The US will lower tariffs to a "non-discriminatory" level during a 90-day exemption period, which is seen as a necessary step to prevent damage to the US economy and to facilitate further negotiations [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the joint statement, there was a rapid increase in market risk appetite, with safe-haven assets like gold and the yen declining, while the Hong Kong stock market and the US stock futures rose sharply [7][8]. - The capital market's significant rise reflects a strong recognition of the joint statement, with expectations of a recovery in the export-related sectors such as machinery, lithium batteries, and transportation [8][9]. Long-term Trends and Investment Opportunities - In the medium to long term, the focus is on technology self-sufficiency and new productive forces, with key trends including domestic AI development, innovative pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in energy and communication [10][11]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to benefit export-oriented industries, particularly in consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which may see improved performance in the near term [9][11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that if the US maintains lower tariff levels, the pressure on Chinese exports will significantly decrease, leading to a recovery in macroeconomic fundamentals [8][10].