中美“停战”90天能达成什么交易？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, highlighting key issues such as trade conditions, currency exchange rates, and the U.S. fiscal situation as primary factors contributing to the U.S. trade deficit with China [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Conditions and Negotiation Challenges - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that trade conditions, currency exchange rates, and the U.S. fiscal situation are the main reasons for the trade deficit, predicting that "trade conditions" will be a core topic in future negotiations [2]. - The article emphasizes that the 90-day "truce" period aims to stabilize financial markets and avoid economic damage, but the complexity of negotiations is acknowledged, with past experiences suggesting that such discussions typically require over a year [3]. Group 2: Import Expansion and Previous Agreements - The U.S. is seeking to expand imports of American products from China, with Bessent suggesting a potential purchase agreement to correct the trade deficit. Previous commitments from China to increase imports by over $200 billion have not been met, leading to calls for new targets [4]. - Experts believe that revising the agreements made during the Trump administration could serve as a starting point for current negotiations, although achieving a consensus within the 90-day timeframe remains challenging [4]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Future Implications - President Trump has indicated the possibility of significantly raising tariffs if negotiations fail, using this as leverage against China. This has implications for various industries, particularly in Japan and South Korea, which are watching the negotiations closely [5]. - The article notes that past negotiations nearly broke down due to differing expectations, and while there is a temporary easing of tensions, the potential for renewed high tariffs remains if progress is not made [6].