深夜，大涨！美国，重大发布！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected cooling of inflation in the U.S. is highlighted, with April CPI rising only 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since February 2021, and below market expectations of 2.4% [1][5]. Inflation Data - The April CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also lower than the expected 0.3% [5]. - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, matching market expectations and remaining at the lowest level since March 2021 [8]. - The "super core CPI" (excluding housing services) fell to 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021 [6]. Price Movements - Notable price decreases were observed in airline tickets, used cars, and clothing, with grocery prices experiencing their first decline in nearly a year [7]. - Egg prices dropped by 12.7% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1% decrease in overall food costs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, traders continued to bet on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice by the end of 2025 [3][16]. - Major U.S. tech stocks surged, with Nvidia rising over 6% after news of a partnership to build an AI factory in Saudi Arabia [11]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariff policies on U.S. inflation remains uncertain, with businesses potentially delaying price increases until inventory is depleted [2][18]. - Goldman Sachs economists noted that pre-tariff inventory could postpone the transfer of higher costs to consumers [19]. - Analysts suggest that the effects of tariffs may become more pronounced in the coming months, particularly if tariffs on Chinese goods remain high [22]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current stance due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation [17][23]. - A study indicated that tariff changes from 2018-2019 were fully transmitted to consumer prices within two months, with a transmission coefficient of approximately 1.75 [24].