中美关税大幅调降，如何影响中国自美国进口石油和天然气

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the US-China Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement indicates a commitment to reduce tariffs imposed since April 2025 to 10%, with a 90-day suspension on the remaining 24% tariffs, although tariffs on certain Chinese imports from the US remain unchanged [1][2]. Tariff Changes and Impact - The tariffs on US imports, particularly on coal, LNG, crude oil, and agricultural products, will continue to apply at rates of 10%-15% for China [1]. - As of 2024, China imported approximately 60 billion yuan worth of US crude oil and LNG, with US crude oil accounting for only 1.74% of China's total crude oil imports [2]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reduction in China's imports of US energy products, with a year-on-year decline of 54%, 76%, and 70% in the first three months of 2024 for crude oil [2]. Market Dynamics - The attractiveness of US crude oil has diminished for Chinese buyers due to the 20% tariff, as global price differences among various crude oil types are minimal [2]. - Chinese buyers are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding US LNG imports, despite the competitive pricing of US natural gas [3][4]. - The anticipated increase in pipeline gas imports from Russia and the acceleration of domestic gas storage and LNG receiving station construction in China are expected to fill the gap left by reduced US imports [4]. Economic Outlook - The mutual tariff reduction between the US and China is expected to positively impact the international oil and gas market, improving global economic prospects and market sentiment [4].