商品房预售制度走到“十字路口”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "current housing sales" system in Xinyang, Henan Province, marking it as the first city in China to fully adopt this system, which aims to replace the long-standing pre-sale system in the real estate sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Current Housing Sales System - Xinyang's new policy mandates that all newly developed residential properties in the central urban area must be sold as completed units, with counties encouraged to follow suit [1]. - The current housing sales system is seen as a potential way to restore buyer confidence, although its feasibility is questioned given the current liquidity issues in the real estate market [1]. Historical Context of Pre-sale System - The pre-sale system, which allows developers to sell properties before completion, was introduced in China in the early 1990s to address funding shortages in the real estate sector [3][4]. - This system has historically provided significant cash flow for developers, with "deposits and pre-sales" accounting for over 20% of funding sources for real estate companies, peaking above 40% in earlier years [4]. Recent Market Trends - Since 2023, there has been a noticeable shift towards current housing sales, with current sales accounting for approximately 30% of new housing transactions, while pre-sale transactions have declined [5][6]. - The central government has emphasized the need to reform the pre-sale system, with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development advocating for a gradual transition to current sales [5][7]. Risks and Challenges - The article highlights concerns regarding the abrupt cancellation of the pre-sale system, which could exacerbate liquidity issues for developers and lead to increased risks in the market [9][10]. - Local governments have expressed caution about fully implementing the current sales system, citing potential economic disruptions and the need for a gradual approach to reform [10][11]. Recommendations for Transition - The proposed approach includes piloting current sales while maintaining strict regulations on pre-sale funds to ensure project financing [13][14]. - Financial support and reduced land prices are identified as critical measures to alleviate the financial burden of current sales, alongside improvements in the business environment [14][15]. Conclusion - The transition to a current housing sales system is seen as a necessary evolution in the real estate market, but it requires careful management to avoid destabilizing the industry [16].