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券商中国·2025-05-14 14:21

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has significantly reduced tariffs on small packages from China, which is expected to benefit cross-border e-commerce and American consumers, while the average tariff rate remains at its highest level since 1934 [1][2][8]. Tariff Changes - Effective May 14, the U.S. has lowered the ad valorem tax rate on international mail from 120% to 54% and canceled the planned increase of the fixed fee from $100 to $200 starting June 1, 2025 [1][2][3]. - The U.S. has also revoked a total of 91% tariffs on Chinese goods and modified a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of the tariff suspended for 90 days [2]. Impact on Cross-Border E-commerce - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate cost pressures for cross-border e-commerce, benefiting U.S. consumers [3]. - If the value of a package is below $800, it may only incur a $100 fee, effectively lowering the minimum rate to 12.5% [3]. Trade Dynamics - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, there has been a surge in orders, leading to a near capacity situation for shipping to the U.S. [4][6]. - Companies like Shark Ninja and Basic Fun are preparing to ship goods to U.S. ports immediately [5]. Shipping Capacity Concerns - Experts predict that shipping capacity will become increasingly tight due to a rush in orders, with a potential backlog at U.S. ports expected in June and July [6][4]. - Recent data indicates a 30%-40% year-on-year decline in shipping volume, but a significant recovery in order volume has been observed recently [6]. Average Tariff Rates - Despite the tariff reductions, the average tariff rate in the U.S. remains at 17.8%, the highest since 1934, which has increased by 15.4 percentage points since the Trump administration [8]. - The average tariff rate is projected to cost American households approximately $2,800 annually [8].