一财社论：对通胀降温的判断考验美联储

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in U.S. inflation data, highlighting a cooling trend that poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In April, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 and remaining below expectations for three consecutive months [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, also falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [1]. - Core inflation remains at a relatively comfortable level for the market, suggesting a sustained cooling trend [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The article raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in response to the cooling inflation, which is seen as a favorable condition for such a move [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies, particularly the tariff war, which complicates the inflation outlook [2]. - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, as it continues to rely on past mechanisms that may not be suitable for the current economic environment characterized by volatility and unpredictability [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - The article emphasizes that market participants are likely to adjust their behaviors in response to the tariff war, which could lead to immediate inflationary pressures despite the current data showing a cooling trend [3]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially given the unsustainable nature of U.S. deficits and the burden of interest payments on national debt [3]. - The ongoing global economic transformation, driven by factors such as AI and changes in the supply chain, adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's decision-making landscape [3].