中国未雨绸缪压倒了特朗普

Core Viewpoint - China has strengthened its economic resilience since the first Trump administration's trade war, focusing on structural economic transformation to survive without the U.S. [1] Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - Since 2018, China's exports to countries outside the U.S. have increased by over $1 trillion, with total exports reaching approximately $3.6 trillion, equating to about twice the annual export amount to the U.S. [2] - The U.S. has reduced additional tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, but the burden on China's export industry remains significant, and the future direction of negotiations is uncertain [3] - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods include a 10% base rate and an additional 20% for illegal drug-related imports, totaling 30% [1] Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Future Considerations - China is diversifying its imports, particularly in agriculture, reducing reliance on the U.S. for soybeans and wheat by sourcing from Brazil and Central Asia [2] - The ongoing trade tensions are viewed as a "game of endurance," with the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 being a critical factor, as prolonged high tariffs could lead to product shortages for American consumers [2] - China's dominance in rare earth production, accounting for about 70% globally and 90% in refining, is a strategic advantage that could impact U.S. high-tech industries and military capabilities [2] Group 3: Domestic Economic Challenges - The shift of factories overseas, particularly in the electronics sector, poses risks of unemployment and economic instability in China, even if these changes are temporary during the transition [4] - The potential migration or closure of e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and Temu could further exacerbate job losses and economic challenges [4]