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美债,崩了!
21世纪经济报道·2025-05-15 07:09

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with 30-year yields approaching 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, indicates significant market volatility and potential risks for U.S. debt credibility [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Treasury Yield Increase - The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields since April is attributed to four main factors: 1. The U.S. government's excessive tariffs leading to inflation expectations [4]. 2. A decline in foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. debt [4]. 3. Rapid unwinding of Treasury basis trades due to soaring yields [4]. 4. A significant erosion of the reputation of U.S. debt as a global safe asset [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that long-term Treasury yields may continue to rise in the coming months, posing further risks to the U.S. economy and undermining the dollar's dominance [4][10]. - The current environment is compared to 2011, with expectations that funds flowing to European and Japanese markets may eventually return to U.S. Treasuries [6]. Group 3: Divergent Institutional Views - Domestic institutions have differing opinions on U.S. Treasuries: 1. CICC suggests that the recent softening of U.S. tariff attitudes and progress in U.S.-China trade talks have improved risk appetite, but the fundamental issues regarding the dollar's safe-haven status remain unresolved [6]. 2. Guotai Junan believes that the U.S. has sufficient safety mechanisms in place, and the short-term default risk is low, viewing U.S. Treasuries as more valuable than European or Japanese bonds in the long run [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk and Future Outlook - A report from Renmin University warns that the U.S. national credit is approaching a visible crisis, with 2025 potentially marking a significant downturn for U.S. debt [9][10]. - The U.S. debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [10]. - The report predicts that interest payments on U.S. debt could reach $13.8 trillion over the next decade, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total of the past 20 years [10]. Group 5: Global Trends in Treasury Holdings - Global central banks are continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [11]. - The report suggests that the decline of U.S. Treasury credibility is not just a financial issue but signals a broader shift towards a multipolar currency system [12].