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欧美金融机构纷纷上调中美经济增长预期
日经中文网·2025-05-16 03:06

Group 1 - The overly pessimistic views on China's economy are decreasing, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for China's annual economic growth from 4.0% to 4.6%, indicating a positive adjustment from previous expectations [1][2] - Morgan Stanley and Barclays have also updated their economic outlooks for the US, with Morgan Stanley predicting a "no recession" scenario and raising China's growth forecast to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China is expected to lower the average effective tariff rate in the US from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the US economy will avoid slow contraction in the second half of 2025, projecting slow growth instead [1] - Barclays has shifted its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' US stock team predicts that the reduction in tariffs will boost corporate earnings per share (EPS), raising the S&P 500 index target from 5900 to 6100 points [3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the tariff reduction announcement [3] - In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3400 points for the first time in two months, indicating a recovery in the market [3]