日经中文网·2025-05-16 03:06Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards localized production due to geopolitical risks and supply chain diversification, leading to potential market disruptions and overcapacity risks [1][2][5]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - The semiconductor supply chain is complex and cannot be independently managed by any single country, prompting nations like the U.S. to push for domestic production [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated an investigation into the semiconductor supply chain, focusing on national security concerns related to imports [1]. - The investigation will assess reliance on specific countries and may recommend corrective measures, including tariffs or import quotas [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Production Costs - The semiconductor industry is at a turning point, with potential chaos arising from changes in international division of labor [2]. - The U.S. accounts for 35% of global semiconductor sales, but only about 10% of global production capacity [3]. - The cost of producing advanced semiconductors in the U.S. is approximately 10% higher than in Taiwan, raising concerns about competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Investment and Production Initiatives - Companies like NVIDIA are moving towards localized production in the U.S., with plans to produce AI semiconductors and servers domestically [3][4]. - The global semiconductor industry plans to build 108 new factories between 2025 and 2027, a 30% increase from previous years, driven by geopolitical tensions and local support for industries [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Demand Concerns - The slowdown in global economic growth is negatively impacting sales of personal computers, smartphones, and electric vehicles, which could lead to an oversupply in the semiconductor market [5]. - If tariffs lead to further economic deceleration, demand for semiconductors may decline, exacerbating the risk of oversupply [5].