美债，崩了！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with all maturities exceeding 4%, and the 30-year yield approaching 5% [1] - The recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries is driven by four main factors: U.S. government tariffs leading to inflation expectations, declining foreign investor interest, rapid unwinding of basis trades due to soaring yields, and a diminished reputation of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset [2] - There is a possibility of continued significant increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields in the coming months, which could pose more risks to the U.S. economy and undermine the foundation of the dollar's dominance [2] Group 2 - Domestic institutions have differing views on U.S. Treasuries, with some indicating that the recent softening of U.S. tariff attitudes and progress in U.S.-China trade talks have improved risk appetite, while others warn of the declining safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries [3][4] - A report from Renmin University warns that the U.S. national credit is approaching a visible crisis, predicting that 2025 could be the year of a U.S. Treasury collapse, urging vigilance regarding volatility in U.S. financial markets [5] - The report indicates that the U.S. government is losing credibility, with over a 50% chance of economic recession by 2025, exposing vulnerabilities in the dollar system and leading to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries [6] Group 3 - Global central banks are continuously reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with the dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.4%, the lowest in 30 years [8] - The report suggests that the potential collapse of U.S. Treasuries is not the end of the international financial system but the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system [8]