抢装潮结束，市场情绪消极影响下硅片价格未来走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic market experienced a surge in demand due to policy incentives, leading to significant price increases in components, batteries, and silicon wafers. However, following the end of the installation rush, demand has sharply declined, resulting in a substantial drop in prices across all segments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the photovoltaic market was stimulated by policies "430" and "531," resulting in a booming market where companies accelerated project progress and prices for components, batteries, and silicon wafers rose significantly. For instance, the average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers reached 1.28 yuan per piece, with increases of 16.36% from the beginning of the year [1]. - By early April, battery prices reached 0.32 yuan/W and component prices were at 0.78 yuan/W, reflecting increases of 14.29% and 14.71% respectively compared to the start of the year [1]. Group 2: Price Decline and Future Outlook - After the installation rush ended, terminal demand rapidly decreased, leading to a significant drop in prices. Post-May Day, the average transaction price for N-type G10L dropped to 1.01 yuan per piece, with similar declines for other silicon wafer types [2]. - The decline in silicon wafer prices is attributed to reduced downstream orders and strong buyer resistance to high prices. Component prices fell below 0.7 yuan/W and battery prices dropped below 0.3 yuan/W, indicating that prices have returned to or fallen below early-year levels [2]. - Looking ahead, while short-term demand remains weak, there is potential for price stabilization as current silicon wafer prices approach the cost levels for many companies. Seasonal demand in the photovoltaic industry, particularly in Q3, may provide a turning point for the market, suggesting a potential recovery in silicon wafer prices in the medium to long term [2].