深夜，金价大反弹！后市机会如何？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant volatility on May 15, with a drop of nearly 1.8% to below $3130 per ounce, followed by a rebound to $3209 per ounce, reflecting a daily fluctuation of 2.8% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets as U.S.-China trade talks showed unexpected progress, alleviating global trade tensions [1][2]. - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations resulted in a joint statement with multiple positive agreements, which has raised hopes for the global economy [2]. - Following the trade "truce" between the two major economies, gold prices have faced downward pressure, with a notable drop of 2.73% earlier in the week [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, short-term bearish momentum could lead to price targets of $3136, $3073, and $3000 [3]. - The overall macroeconomic risks are currently low, and further reductions in U.S. tariffs could enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential adjustments in precious metals [3]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the underlying demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Trade Agreements - A new trade agreement is expected to be announced by President Trump upon his return from the Middle East, indicating further potential easing of international trade tensions [6]. - Approximately 25 trade agreements are currently under negotiation, with India being highlighted as a potential candidate for a future agreement [6]. - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has decreased but remains historically high at 17.8%, the highest since 1934, indicating ongoing trade complexities [7].