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Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease by approximately 230 yuan per ton, marking the fifth decline of the year, with 92-octane gasoline prices potentially falling back to 6 yuan per liter [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is primarily based on the comparison of the weighted average price of international crude oil over the last 10 working days with the previous period's average [1]. Recent Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from April 30 to May 19), international crude oil prices experienced a rebound after an initial decline, influenced by OPEC+'s unexpected production increase and geopolitical factors [1]. - As of May 15, the reference crude oil price change rate was -5.23%, leading to the anticipated reduction in gasoline and diesel prices [1]. Consumer Impact - Analysts predict that if the price drop is implemented, the price of 92-octane gasoline will decrease by approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, and 0-diesel by about 0.2 yuan per liter, resulting in lower fuel costs for consumers and logistics [2]. - For private car owners, filling a 70-liter tank will cost about 12 yuan less after the price adjustment [2]. Year-to-Date Adjustments - In 2023, there have been nine rounds of price adjustments, resulting in three increases, four decreases, and two instances of no change. After the upcoming adjustment, the pricing situation will shift to three increases, five decreases, and two no changes [2].