30万护理员 VS 3500万失能老人，“人才荒”如何解

Core Viewpoint - The long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in China has created a new workforce of 300,000 long-term care professionals over the past nine years, but there is a significant gap between the demand for care services and the supply of qualified personnel, which poses a challenge for the system's development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Situation and Demand - There are approximately 35 million disabled elderly individuals in China, representing 11.6% of the total elderly population, leading to a projected demand for around 10 million long-term care workers [2][3]. - Research indicates that the labor demand gap for socialized elderly care services could reach between 3.6 million and 5.8 million, with future needs potentially rising to 10.9 million to 14 million by mid-century [3]. Group 2: Workforce Challenges - The long-term care workforce is characterized by low educational levels, low pay, low professional recognition, high average age, high work intensity, and high turnover rates [4]. - The average age of long-term care workers in certain regions is around 50, with a significant portion of the workforce being over 50 years old, making recruitment of younger staff a major challenge [4][5]. Group 3: Policy and Training Initiatives - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated training programs for long-term care professionals, aiming to enhance talent cultivation and attract more individuals to the industry [2][7]. - The introduction of the long-term care worker certification system is expected to improve the professionalization and attractiveness of the industry, as well as enhance public recognition of the role [9][13]. Group 4: International Comparisons and Best Practices - Learning from Japan and South Korea, the development of the long-term care workforce is closely linked to the establishment and improvement of long-term care insurance systems, which include measures to attract and retain talent [7][12]. - Japan's experience shows that despite efforts to improve working conditions and recognition, high turnover rates persist, indicating the need for ongoing efforts to enhance the appeal of the profession [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The professionalization of long-term care workers is seen as a critical step towards addressing the industry's challenges, with a focus on creating a supportive environment that recognizes the value of care work [11][14]. - The ongoing development of training programs and certification standards is expected to facilitate a younger and more skilled workforce in the long-term care sector [13][14].