国信证券袁超：中国资产正转向“技术驱动+资产重估”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy amidst global geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism, highlighting the importance of leveraging existing policies to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2]. Policy Utilization - The recent easing of China-US trade tensions is expected to positively impact the prices of imported and exported goods, with China's exports to the US being more than three times its imports from the US, suggesting a greater positive effect on domestic prices [3]. - The central bank's monetary policy is likely to remain stable despite the trade negotiations, focusing on a proactive approach to maintain economic stability [4][5]. Asset Revaluation Logic - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological advancements and innovation, which are seen as core engines for productivity and economic development [6]. - Four main reasons support the ongoing revaluation logic: 1. Systemic support from China's large market size and complete industrial chain [8]. 2. The emergence of new industries like AI and renewable energy, enhancing overall productivity [8]. 3. A robust policy toolbox, including a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, providing flexibility to counter external shocks [8]. 4. The current low valuation of Chinese assets, indicating significant room for recovery and growth [9]. Market Outlook - The revaluation of Chinese assets is expected to lead to an upward shift in the valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the latter showing more significant structural recovery potential due to long-standing liquidity discounts [10]. - The investment logic for Chinese assets is anticipated to shift from low valuation and high dividends to a focus on high growth sectors, particularly in technology, with a new valuation model emerging that emphasizes core business earnings and innovation metrics [10].