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“击鼓传花”式热炒,13个交易日暴涨172%!

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Yushansha A (渝三峡A) is driven by speculation around hydrogen energy, state-owned enterprise reform, and a turnaround in performance, but the underlying fundamentals raise concerns about sustainability and potential risks [1][3][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Yushansha A experienced a dramatic stock price increase from 5.15 CNY to 14.01 CNY between April 25 and May 16, achieving a cumulative rise of 172% over 13 trading days, with a static P/E ratio soaring to 1391 times, significantly above the average valuation in the chemical industry [1][3][8]. - The stock recorded 9 trading halts during this period, indicating a strong speculative interest from institutional and retail investors, characterized by a "main force lifting + retail following" trading pattern [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In its 2024 annual report, Yushansha A reported revenues of 350 million CNY and a net profit of 4.37 million CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 112.54%. The turnaround was largely attributed to its 33% stake in Xinjiang Xinhui Gorge Clean Energy Co., which contributed 50.58 million CNY to Yushansha A's net profit, accounting for 1158.26% of the company's total profit [3][4][8]. - The stock's initial surge was triggered by the positive performance of Xinjiang Xinhui Gorge, which turned profitable in 2024 after a previous loss of 57.3 million CNY in 2023 due to tax issues [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - During the initial phase of the stock's rise from April 25 to April 29, the main funds saw a net inflow of 35.63 million CNY, indicating active participation from institutional investors [4][5]. - Following the initial surge, there were signs of profit-taking, with a net outflow of 182 million CNY on April 30, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 143 million CNY, suggesting a "hot potato" trading environment [5][6]. Group 4: Business Fundamentals - Yushansha A's core business in paint and coatings has been under pressure, with revenues declining from 426 million CNY in 2020 to 347 million CNY in 2024, and gross margins dropping from 32.83% to 22.13% [8]. - The reliance on Xinjiang Xinhui Gorge for profitability raises questions about the stability of future earnings, especially as the main business continues to shrink [8][9]. Group 5: Corporate Actions - Yushansha A has taken steps to optimize its structure by dissolving its wholly-owned subsidiary Sichuan Yushansha Paint Sales Co. and selling a 10% stake in Chongqing Liangjiang New Area Chemical Loan Co., which may be interpreted as preparation for future restructuring [9]. - The company has previously attempted asset restructuring, including plans to integrate assets from its controlling shareholder, but these efforts have not materialized [9].