刚刚，大幅下调！关税突袭，影响多大？

Economic Outlook - The European Commission has downgraded the economic growth forecast for the Eurozone, expecting a GDP growth of only 0.9% for this year, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% [1][2] - For 2026, the GDP growth is projected to be 1.4%, also lower than the earlier forecast of 1.6% [2] - The downgrade is attributed to rising tariffs, recent shifts in U.S. trade policy, and increased uncertainty regarding tariff configurations [1][2] Trade Relations - The Eurozone's growth outlook is significantly impacted by the ongoing "trade war," leading to strengthened ties between the EU and the UK [1] - A bilateral summit was held between the UK and the EU, marking the first since Brexit, focusing on defense, trade, and fishing rights [5][6] - A breakthrough agreement was reached to significantly reduce trade barriers and extend fishing rights until 2038 [6] Economic Challenges - Germany's economy is stagnating, with a projected growth rate of zero for this year, primarily due to its heavy reliance on exports and rising energy costs [3] - The European Commission noted that the risks to the growth outlook are skewed to the downside, with potential further fragmentation of global trade and climate-related disasters posing ongoing risks [2][3] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decline over the next two years, reaching 5.7% next year [4] - Consumer inflation is projected to decrease from 2.4% last year to 2.1% this year, and further down to 1.7% by 2026 [4] Fiscal Outlook - The public finance situation in the Eurozone is expected to slightly deteriorate, with the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP rising from 3.1% last year to 3.2% this year [4] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% this year, and further to 91% by 2026 [4]