美债，再遭抛售

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yield surpassing the psychological threshold of 5%, marking the highest level since 2007 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.52%, while the 30-year yield rose by 6 basis points to 5.00%, nearing the peak of 5.18% reached in 2023 [1] - U.S. stock futures also declined, with the S&P 500 futures dropping by 0.6%, and the U.S. dollar index continuing its recent downward trend [1] Group 2: Reasons for Downgrade - Moody's cited the persistently high fiscal deficit and the rising proportion of interest payments relative to fiscal revenue as the primary reasons for the downgrade [1] - The agency emphasized the failure of multiple administrations and Congresses to reach effective solutions for improving fiscal discipline, with ongoing discussions about tax cuts exacerbating market concerns [1] Group 3: Future Implications - Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, indicated that the downgrade could accelerate large investors, such as sovereign funds, to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, potentially creating a vicious cycle of rising yields and intensified selling [1] - Wells Fargo's strategy team predicts that the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries may rise by an additional 5-10 basis points as a result of this event [1]