又转向了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in housing prices across major cities in China, indicating a halt in the previous upward momentum and an increase in the number of cities experiencing price declines, suggesting a prolonged search for a bottom in the housing market [1][4]. Housing Market Trends - In April, the number of cities with declining housing prices increased, with only six cities showing month-on-month price increases compared to fourteen in March [4]. - Major cities like Beijing, Hangzhou, Xiamen, and Shenzhen, which previously showed resilience, have now entered a downward trend [4]. - The average housing price index for first-tier cities decreased by 0.2%, while second and third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.4%, indicating a broader market weakness [4]. Economic Indicators - The current mortgage interest rates have dropped to around 3%, but the rental yield in many first and second-tier cities remains below 2%, leading to negative cash flow for property owners [4]. - The article highlights that the housing market is experiencing a structural shift due to demographic changes, with a significant reduction in the growth of the resident population expected over the next few decades [5]. Stock Market Insights - The article mentions that the valuation of the CSI 300 index is currently at 12.6, which is lower than many global indices, indicating a potential undervaluation in the A-share market [6]. - The low valuation of the CSI 300 is attributed to a high proportion of financial and state-owned enterprises, which may not prioritize shareholder returns [6]. Broader Market Context - The article notes that the Hong Kong stock market has seen significant new stock financing, surpassing 60 billion this year, indicating a strong appetite for capital among Chinese companies [7]. - The article also touches on the impact of U.S. economic conditions, including rising long-term treasury yields and the implications of a recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's [7].