券商中国·2025-05-19 14:07Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market reactions following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, highlighting the implications for U.S. stocks, bonds, and trade policies [2][4][6]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices opened sharply lower, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 initially dropping over 1%, and later narrowing losses to 0.73% and 0.55% respectively [4]. - The U.S. bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [4][6]. - The dollar index fell by 0.63%, indicating a decline in the dollar's value [2]. Moody's Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the expanding federal budget deficit and the increasing reliance on refinancing in a high-interest-rate environment as primary reasons [4][6]. - Analysts warn that rising bond yields and a declining dollar could trigger another wave of stock market sell-offs, especially if President Trump loses control over the long-term bond market [2][4]. Trade Policy Concerns - U.S. Treasury Secretary warned of a return to high tariffs if countries do not negotiate in good faith, indicating a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations [8][10]. - Ongoing trade talks with major allies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly stalled, with significant disagreements remaining, particularly in the automotive sector [8][9]. Economic Implications - Analysts express concerns that rising long-term bond yields will increase the government's net interest costs and deficits, potentially undermining the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations could lead to structural price increases globally, as other countries may retaliate with their own tariffs [10].