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“小单快反”神话褪色,快时尚遭遇行业拐点
创业邦·2025-05-21 10:34

Core Viewpoint - The fast fashion industry is facing significant challenges due to the abrupt end of the U.S. tax exemption policy for small packages, which has adversely affected China's new generation of fast fashion enterprises and their "small order quick return" business model [3][4]. Group 1: Challenges to the "Small Order Quick Return" Model - The "small order quick return" model, characterized by flexible supply chains and rapid response to market demands, is under threat from increased tariffs and longer customs clearance times [6][7]. - The recent changes in tariff policies have raised costs significantly, with tariffs on small packages increasing from 0% to 30%, which severely impacts the profitability of the "small order quick return" model [8][10]. - Customs clearance processes have become more complicated, extending the time required for goods to enter the market, which undermines the competitive advantage of fast fashion brands like Shein that rely on rapid turnover [11][16]. Group 2: Impact on Market Dynamics - The fast fashion market is expected to undergo a significant shift, with traditional brands like Inditex (ZARA's parent company) and Fast Retailing (Uniqlo's parent company) potentially benefiting from the challenges faced by Chinese fast fashion brands [4][24]. - Despite the potential for traditional brands to gain market share, they are unlikely to fully absorb the losses incurred by the "small order quick return" brands, leading to an overall decline in the industry's scale [24][26]. - Price sensitivity among consumers remains high, as evidenced by a 23% drop in Shein's sales in the U.S. following the tariff changes, indicating that higher prices could lead to reduced demand for fast fashion products [24][25]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The fast fashion industry is expected to experience a contraction in market size in the short term due to trade tensions and increased costs, although there may be a slight rebound for traditional brands [26][28]. - The long-term viability of the "small order quick return" model is uncertain, as the industry must adapt to new realities while maintaining its core competitive advantages [28][29].