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Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has raised concerns among Hong Kong fund managers about potential forced selling of U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly under the strict regulations of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) system [1][3][4] Group 1: Impact of Credit Rating Downgrade - Following Moody's downgrade, only Japan's R&I maintains a AAA rating for the U.S., which could lead to significant selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries held by Hong Kong funds [3][4] - The total assets of MPF funds that could hold U.S. Treasuries amount to approximately HKD 484 billion (around USD 61.8 billion) by the end of 2024 [3] - The Hong Kong Investment Funds Association has expressed concerns to regulatory bodies, suggesting that exceptions should be made for U.S. Treasuries even if their rating falls below AAA [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - There has been a notable increase in short positions on U.S. Treasuries, with traders betting on a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5%, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. government debt and deficits [1][5] - Major Wall Street strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are raising their yield forecasts due to the ongoing fiscal challenges posed by the Trump tax cuts [5][6] - Historical data indicates that downgrades in sovereign ratings typically have a more pronounced short-term negative impact on U.S. equities, while the long-term effects on Treasury yields are less significant [5][6] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The ongoing discussions around the Trump tax cuts and their potential passage could exacerbate the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to increased market volatility regarding long-term Treasury yields [6] - Concerns about potential retaliatory actions from foreign nations, such as selling U.S. Treasuries in response to tariffs, could pose systemic risks to the Treasury market, although historical trends suggest that such actions have limited impact [6]