社论丨需防范美债抛售潮对全球市场的冲击风险

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5%, attributed to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aa3 to Aa1, leading to market concerns over U.S. fiscal stability [1] - The U.S. government is pushing for a tax reform bill that aims to extend significant tax cuts from Trump's first term, potentially reducing taxes by over $4 trillion and cutting at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which is expected to further impact U.S. Treasury sales [2] - The combination of tariff and tax policies is raising concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy, prompting investors to express their apprehensions through the sale of U.S. Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are leading sovereign funds and large investors to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which could raise U.S. financing costs and exacerbate the fiscal deficit [3] - Japan, as the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, is experiencing a rapid rise in its own bond yields, indicating a potential loss of confidence in both U.S. and Japanese government bonds, which could destabilize the global safe-haven asset market [3] - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the U.S. and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant repercussions for global capital markets and real economies, potentially affecting external demand and exports from countries like China [4]