【院士报告】32页PPT详解新能源汽车行业革命技术路线图

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative phases of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, focusing on three main areas: power electrification, vehicle intelligence, and energy decarbonization, highlighting the expected growth and technological advancements in these sectors. Group 1: Power Electrification - The power electrification phase is characterized by the emergence of electric vehicles (EVs), with significant milestones such as the establishment of a "pure electric drive" strategy in 2010 and the surpassing of 1 million units sold in 2018 [3] - In 2021, EV sales reached 3.52 million units, marking a significant breakthrough in the electrification of passenger vehicles [3] - Projections indicate that by 2025, EV sales will exceed 15 million units annually, with a stable growth period expected thereafter, potentially reaching 100 to 160 million vehicles by 2030 [3] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery sector is seeing collaborative innovation, with the establishment of the China All-Solid-State Battery Collaborative Innovation Platform in January 2024, involving various stakeholders including academicians and leading enterprises [5][6] - The focus is shifting towards sulfide solid electrolytes, with numerous companies investing in research and development to establish mass production capabilities by 2027-2028 [9] - Key players are expected to achieve significant production milestones, such as Idemitsu's plan for a 100-ton annual production line by 2027-2028 and AGC's anticipated mass production of sulfide solid electrolytes by 2027 [9] Group 3: Vehicle Intelligence - The vehicle intelligence phase is projected to explode in 2025, driven by advancements in AI and intelligent driving technologies, with expectations for L4-level fully autonomous vehicles to be commercially viable by 2030 [20] - The integration of AI in vehicle systems is expected to enhance the entire lifecycle of NEVs, from design and manufacturing to usage and recycling [21][29] Group 4: Energy Decarbonization - The energy decarbonization phase is set to gain momentum with the implementation of China's dual carbon strategy, aiming for a significant increase in renewable energy sources by 2030, including a target for non-fossil energy to account for over 50% of total power generation [37] - By 2035, it is anticipated that green electricity will become the primary power source for charging, with the number of electric vehicles reaching between 200 to 300 million [37][42] Group 5: Future Industry Outlook - The NEV industry is expected to evolve into a multi-trillion-dollar sector, with projections indicating that the total annual sales of NEVs could approach 30 million units by 2035, supported by advancements in battery technology and energy systems [54] - The integration of various energy systems, including vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies, is anticipated to revolutionize energy consumption and management in urban environments [51][53]