【乘联分会论坛】5月狭义乘用车零售预计185.0万辆，新能源预计98.0万辆

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a stable growth trend driven by new policies and increased manufacturer subsidies, with significant retail sales figures reported for April and projections for May indicating a "high before low" sales pattern [2][3][6]. Group 1: April Market Review - In April, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 1.755 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% [2]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales for the month totaled 905,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 33.9% and a penetration rate of 51.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2]. Group 2: May Market Outlook - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers implemented promotional policies, leading to sustained terminal demand. However, post-holiday, the market is expected to show a noticeable decline in sales [3]. - The overall discount rate in the market increased to approximately 24.8% in mid-May, with leading manufacturers targeting an 8% year-on-year increase in retail sales for May [4]. Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of May, daily retail sales averaged 41,700 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The second week saw a recovery with daily sales averaging 60,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [5]. - The estimated total retail sales for May are projected to be around 1.85 million units, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase and a 5.4% month-on-month increase, with NEV sales expected to reach 980,000 units and a penetration rate of approximately 52.9% [4][6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - As of May 11, the number of applications for the vehicle replacement subsidy reached 3.225 million, with 1.035 million for scrapping and 2.19 million for replacement, providing strong support for the automotive market [6]. - The automotive market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend despite complex international conditions, with various promotional strategies being employed by manufacturers during local auto shows [6].