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“没人要的国债”!日美发债双双遇冷
第一财经·2025-05-22 15:21

Core Viewpoint - The recent poor performance of long-term government bond auctions in Japan and the United States has raised concerns in global markets, leading to fears of a potential crisis in the bond market, with questions about who will absorb the "unwanted bonds" [1][4][11]. Group 1: Japan's Bond Market - The recent auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds was disappointing, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987 [1][4]. - Japanese insurance companies are reluctant to purchase long-term bonds due to significant losses from rising interest rates, leading to a trend of net selling by domestic investors [4][5]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, significantly higher than the U.S. at 120%, yet the bond market has not faced a crisis, largely due to the Bank of Japan's support [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, marking the second time yields have surpassed 5%, indicating weak demand [8][9]. - The rising yields in U.S. bonds have led to a significant drop in stock markets, with the VIX index rising by 15% and the dollar index falling below 100 [8][9]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the potential for further tax cuts are contributing to the weak demand for U.S. bonds, as investors are wary of increasing debt levels [9][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that if market conditions stabilize, the critical question will be who will absorb the government bonds, particularly in light of the Bank of Japan's potential need to reconsider its yield curve control (YCC) policy [11][12]. - The U.S. government may need to adjust its bond issuance strategy to avoid overwhelming the market during sensitive periods, while the Federal Reserve could consider implementing YCC to maintain interest rate stability [13].