Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's, leading to significant market reactions including a drop in stock prices and rising bond yields, indicating a potential crisis in the US debt market [2][3][11]. Group 1: US Debt Market Reactions - The 20-year US Treasury bond auction on May 22 resulted in a disappointing yield of 5.047%, marking the second time this yield has surpassed 5% [2][6]. - Following the auction, the yield on the 20-year Treasury bond rose to 5.127%, the highest level since November 2023 [8]. - The overall demand for the auction was slightly below average, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - The US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion for 2024, and a record deficit of $3.13 trillion in 2020 [11][12]. - The public debt rate has reached 97.8%, with projections indicating it could rise to 107.2% by 2029 [18]. - The article highlights concerns that foreign investors are reluctant to fund the US's dual deficits at current price levels, as evidenced by a declining dollar index [11]. Group 3: Global Impact and Comparisons - The turmoil in the US debt market has triggered a "earthquake" in the Japanese bond market, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012 [20]. - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 232.7%, significantly higher than Greece during its debt crisis [22]. - Analysts warn that Japan could become a potential center for global financial risk due to its precarious fiscal situation [22].
突发大利空!美国、日本全线崩盘
天天基金网·2025-05-23 03:20