日债崩了！谁来接盘日本天量国债？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds are facing significant selling pressure, leading to concerns about liquidity and potential market instability as yields rise to historical highs [1][7][10]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - As of May 23, 2023, the 30-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 1.78% to 3.041%, while the 40-year yield fell by 1.70% to 3.522% [1][2]. - The 20-year bond auction on May 20, 2023, was the worst since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.96 [2][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a lack of bids, with foreign investors buying while domestic investors, particularly life insurance companies, are selling due to significant unrealized losses [2][9]. - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is the largest holder of Japanese government bonds, owning approximately 52% of the market, but is planning to reduce its bond purchases, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The BOJ faces a dilemma: raising interest rates could lead to further increases in bond yields and substantial losses for bondholders, while maintaining low rates risks uncontrolled inflation [3][5]. - Japan's high debt-to-GDP ratio, exceeding 250%, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for a debt crisis if bond yields continue to rise [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming bond auctions in late May and early June will be critical; a weak performance could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields [11]. - Experts suggest that if the BOJ does not intervene, the market may enter a negative feedback loop of selling and rising yields, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis [14][16].