黄金大涨了！还会往上冲？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in international gold prices, driven by rising concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" due to worries over a $36 trillion debt, indicating a failure of past administrations to address large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs [3]. - The total U.S. public debt has surged from approximately $4.5 trillion in 2007 to a historical high today, with the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from about 35% to 100% [3]. - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 5%, which historically impacts borrowing rates for households and businesses, reflecting declining investor confidence in U.S. long-term assets [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and increased military actions in the Middle East, have further boosted gold prices as investors seek safety [5][8]. - The U.S. trade situation is also tense, with President Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming discussions in the Senate regarding the spending bill, with potential implications for U.S. debt concerns and the dollar's recovery [8]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates, with a potential rate cut expected in July, could further influence gold prices, especially if economic indicators show volatility [7][8]. - Short-term bullish sentiment in gold is supported by both momentum traders and long-term investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties, creating favorable conditions for a rebound towards historical highs [8].