乘用车AEBS强标落地前夜：技术边界待定、低价车型压力大

Core Viewpoint - The mandatory installation of Advanced Emergency Braking System (AEBS) in passenger vehicles is a significant step towards enhancing automotive safety in China, aligning with international standards and improving the competitiveness of domestic brands in global markets [2][3]. Summary by Sections AEBS Implementation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed a shift of AEBS from a recommended to a mandatory standard for M1 class passenger cars and N1 class light trucks, effective from January 1, 2027, for new models and January 1, 2028, for all existing models [2][3]. Technical Challenges - Current challenges include inconsistent technical standards, performance discrepancies among vehicles, and issues such as false activation or failure to activate [3][5]. - The performance of AEBS varies significantly, with some systems only effective below 40 km/h, while others can operate at speeds up to 120 km/h [5]. Cost Implications - The installation of AEBS is expected to increase costs, particularly for lower-priced models, which currently have a low installation rate of 2.6% for vehicles priced below 80,000 yuan [9]. - The cost of AEBS systems ranges from 800 yuan to 5,000 yuan depending on the technology used, which could significantly impact the pricing of budget vehicles [9][10]. Market Growth Potential - The global AEBS market is projected to grow from approximately 3.3 trillion yuan in 2024 to nearly 4.9 trillion yuan by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.8% [12]. - In China, the pre-installation market alone could exceed 500 billion yuan, considering the annual production of 25 million vehicles [12][13]. Industry Impact - The mandatory AEBS standard will drive technological upgrades across the automotive supply chain, compelling manufacturers to invest in research and development to meet new performance standards [13]. - Suppliers of key components such as sensors and control algorithms are expected to see increased demand, fostering growth in the domestic automotive supply chain [13]. Future of Autonomous Driving - AEBS is a critical component of Level 2 autonomous driving systems and its mandatory installation is seen as a foundational step towards more advanced autonomous driving technologies [14]. - The implementation of AEBS is expected to enhance public trust in autonomous driving, paving the way for future advancements in intelligent driving systems [14].