价格创新低！光伏、锂电产业供需过剩难题待解

Core Viewpoint - The prices of lithium and silicon have reached new lows since their listing, reflecting a deteriorating supply-demand relationship in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Silicon - On May 23, industrial silicon futures fell below 7800 yuan/ton, hitting a low of 7795 yuan/ton, marking a 28% decline year-to-date [2][3]. - Since its listing in 2022, industrial silicon prices have dropped nearly 60% from a peak close to 20,000 yuan/ton, with the latest closing price at 7915 yuan/ton [3]. - High inventory levels persist, with SMM reporting a total social inventory of 582,000 tons, and production recovery in various regions is expected to maintain downward pressure on prices [3][4]. - The forecast for 2024 indicates industrial silicon production will reach 5.361 million tons, a 42.76% increase from 2023, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [4]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures also faced oversupply issues, with prices hitting a new low of 60,280 yuan/ton, just shy of the 60,000 yuan mark [6]. - As of May 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 1.65% [6]. - The market is characterized by high overall inventory levels, with upstream producers facing significant pressure and many lithium salt manufacturers reducing output [7][8]. - In April, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell, with battery-grade prices dropping from 73,800 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.88% [7]. - The second quarter is expected to continue the trend of oversupply, with both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories remaining high [8].