“抛售美国”情绪日益高涨，更多人看好欧洲股市

Core Viewpoint - Recent sentiment among international investors is increasingly negative towards U.S. assets, driven by Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating and uncertainties surrounding new spending legislation [1][2] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - A survey conducted by JPMorgan among 700 investors from 45 countries revealed that 36% expect European stock markets to outperform by 2025, while only 17% favor U.S. markets [2] - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook have led to a cautious stance among global investors, despite the absence of a recession as a baseline expectation [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Stoxx Europe 600 index has risen by 7% this year, contrasting with a decline of approximately 1% in the S&P 500 index [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. will maintain its dominant position until at least 2026, driven by improving profit sentiment and ongoing growth in artificial intelligence [3] Group 3: Economic Uncertainty - Current uncertainty persists regarding interest rates, recession probabilities, trade agreements, and geopolitical developments [4] - JPMorgan estimates a 40% chance of a U.S. economic recession, with GDP losses already evident, and highlights concerns over tariffs impacting business investment and consumption [5] Group 4: Trade and Investment Risks - Ongoing trade negotiations introduce further uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S.-EU relations, with potential retaliatory tariffs looming [5] - Foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to continue due to inflation and policy instability, which may benefit gold as an alternative investment [5][6]