专访吴晓波：大变局中的外贸四十年

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's foreign trade over the past 40 years, highlighting the transition from a focus on low-cost manufacturing to a more comprehensive approach that includes technology, brand, and management exports. It emphasizes the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese companies in the global market, particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions and the need for compliance with international regulations [1][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Context of China's Foreign Trade - In 1978, China opened its doors to the world, driven by a strong desire for technology and capital, leading to the introduction of foreign investments and advanced production techniques [3][4]. - The 1980s saw the emergence of small-scale exports from brands like Tianjin's Flying Pigeon bicycles, but these efforts were largely experimental and lacked a clear international market strategy [3][4]. Key Turning Points - The year 1998 marked a significant shift as China faced overcapacity in industries like clothing and home appliances, prompting a need to seek new export markets [6]. - China's accession to the WTO in 2001 was a milestone, with trade volumes skyrocketing from $509.65 billion to over $4 trillion by 2013, establishing China as the world's largest goods trader [7]. Evolution of Export Strategies - The period from 1998 to 2008 was characterized by an export-driven economy, where Chinese manufacturers became global OEMs, producing goods for international brands without their own labels [6][7]. - The rise of cross-border e-commerce in 2013 marked a new phase, allowing companies like Anker to establish their own brands and directly engage with global consumers [7][8]. The "One Jiazi Theory" - Wu Xiaobo's "One Jiazi Theory" divides China's industrial evolution into three phases: 1. From 1978 to 1998, focusing on meeting domestic needs 2. From 1998 to 2008, emphasizing export-driven growth 3. Post-2018, where companies are expected to export all elements of their business, including supply chains and R&D [8][9]. Challenges of "All Elements Going Abroad" - The concept of "All Elements Going Abroad" signifies a shift from mere product exports to comprehensive international operations, including technology and management [9][10]. - Companies face significant compliance challenges in foreign markets, as seen in Brazil's complex tax system and the geopolitical tensions affecting the electric vehicle sector [10][11]. Domestic Market Transition - The idea of transitioning from foreign trade to domestic sales is critiqued as a "pseudo-proposition," as the skills required for each market differ significantly [12][13]. - Successful transitions are rare, with most companies struggling to adapt to the competitive domestic landscape, which demands a full-spectrum operational capability [14][15]. Future Outlook - The article predicts a period of "great elimination and great upgrading," where leading companies will thrive through innovation, while smaller firms may face extinction due to rising costs and market pressures [14][15]. - Emerging industries like electric vehicles and high-end manufacturing are expected to drive future growth, supported by favorable policies and technological advancements [15][18].