出货量激增，运价跳涨！外贸企业接新订单却趋谨慎，什么原因？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in shipping demand and freight rates on the China-US route following the reduction of tariffs, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term due to supply-demand imbalances [1][3][5]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - Since the announcement of the China-US tariff reduction on May 12, there has been a significant increase in shipping bookings, particularly for routes to the US, with booking volumes rising by 53% from May 14 to May 21 [3][5]. - By the end of May, shipping capacity for routes to the US was nearly sold out, with freight rates increasing by over 40% compared to early May, reaching approximately $3,500 per FEU for the West Coast and $5,000 per FEU for the East Coast [2][4]. - The demand surge is attributed to US importers placing large orders in anticipation of major holidays in the second half of the year, leading to a temporary capacity crunch on the China-US routes [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The shipping market is currently characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with freight forwarders predicting that rates will continue to rise in the next 90 days, while foreign trade companies hope for a price correction as shipping capacity is restored [1][5][7]. - Some shipping companies are reallocating their fleets to meet the increased demand on the China-US routes, with expectations that capacity will significantly rebound in June [6][7]. - Despite the current surge in shipping demand, foreign trade companies are adopting a cautious approach to new orders due to uncertainties regarding future freight rates and potential congestion at US ports [8][9]. Group 3: Pricing Trends and Market Sentiment - Freight rates for June have already increased to over $6,000 per FEU, with further increases anticipated if booking volumes remain high [7]. - There is a divergence in sentiment between freight forwarders, who expect continued price increases, and foreign trade companies, who believe that increased capacity will lead to a price decline [7][9]. - Concerns about the sustainability of the current freight rates are prevalent among foreign trade companies, as they navigate the complexities of long-term contracts and the potential for speculative pricing in the market [7][9].