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滴滴的小弟们,不想再给高德打工了
创业邦·2025-05-26 03:22

Core Viewpoint - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with second-tier platforms rushing to IPO while facing market saturation and profitability challenges [3][4][5]. Group 1: IPO Activity - On April 30, Cao Cao Mobility updated its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4]. - On May 9, Xiangdao Mobility announced a C-round financing of 1.3 billion yuan, marking the largest single financing in the industry in nearly three years, and has initiated its IPO process [4]. - The IPO rush is characterized by a competitive landscape where major players like Didi hold over 70% market share, while second-tier platforms are struggling to differentiate themselves [7][11]. Group 2: Market Saturation and Profitability Issues - The market is facing saturation, as evidenced by the failed IPO of Shengwei Times due to continuous losses and regulatory penalties [5]. - Platforms like GAC's Ruqi Mobility have seen their market value plummet from 8 billion HKD to 2.3 billion HKD due to poor financial performance and slow progress in Robotaxi commercialization [6]. - The dependency on third-party aggregation platforms has led to a "flow trap," where platforms pay high commissions to acquire orders, squeezing already thin profit margins [9][31]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Cao Cao Mobility's total revenue is projected to grow from 7.63 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.66 billion yuan in 2024, but its net losses remain significant, with a projected loss of 1.25 billion yuan in 2024 [16][32]. - The share of orders from third-party platforms for Cao Cao increased from 49.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2024, indicating a growing reliance on these platforms [17][22]. - Ruqi Mobility's revenue from third-party platforms rose from 28% in 2022 to 59% in 2023, highlighting a similar trend across the industry [20]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The ride-hailing market is structured in a pyramid, with Didi at the top, followed by strong players from traditional automotive companies, and smaller niche players [7][11]. - The aggregation model has fundamentally changed the competitive rules of the ride-hailing industry, with platforms increasingly dependent on major aggregators like Gaode and Meituan for order distribution [24][30]. - The shift towards aggregation has diminished brand recognition and user loyalty for second-tier platforms, as they struggle to retain customers and collect valuable user data [31][39]. Group 5: Future Strategies - To achieve higher valuations in the capital market, second-tier platforms are attempting to tell differentiated stories, such as Cao Cao's focus on customized vehicles and Ruqi's emphasis on autonomous driving [41][43]. - Cao Cao Mobility is leveraging its parent company Geely's resources to produce customized vehicles, which has contributed to a significant increase in its gross transaction volume (GTV) from 4.5% to 25.3% [45]. - Ruqi Mobility is betting on the future of Robotaxi services, although its revenue from this segment remains negligible, and it faces high barriers to entry in terms of technology and capital [48][49].