创新药突围战：从烧钱到兑现，还需过几道坎？

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in China is transitioning from a "cold winter" to a "warm spring," indicating a new cycle of policy support and development, as evidenced by significant stock price increases in leading companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [2][3]. Market Performance - The innovative drug sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising over 30% year-to-date as of May 26, 2023. Notable companies include Sanofi with a 210.86% increase and WuXi AppTec with a 94.17% increase [2]. - The unprofitable biotech index in Hong Kong has also risen over 39% year-to-date, with companies like Deciphera Pharmaceuticals-B seeing a staggering 456.92% increase [2]. Policy Support - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by strong regulation and a "policy cyclicality." Since 2024, various supportive policies for innovative drugs have been implemented, including insurance funding and procurement adjustments [3]. - The sales of newly negotiated drugs from 2018 to 2024 exceeded 540 billion yuan, indicating significant room for growth in the utilization of medical insurance funds [3]. International Market Presence - Chinese innovative drug companies are increasingly gaining international market influence, with the number of new drugs entering clinical trials surpassing that of the U.S. from 2015 to 2024 [5]. - The number of international multi-center clinical trials in China has risen from 207 to 286 between 2020 and 2023, reflecting a strategic shift towards global markets [6]. Investment Challenges - Despite the growth, Chinese innovative drug companies face challenges in balancing investment and returns, with the average cost of developing a new drug reaching $1.778 billion [7]. - The market's perception of investment returns is cautious, as many companies struggle to achieve the necessary sales to recoup development costs [7]. Business Development (BD) Trends - The trend of business development (BD) has become a significant revenue source for leading innovative drug companies, with Heng Rui Pharmaceutical completing 14 licensing agreements totaling approximately $14 billion [10]. - The global pharmaceutical market has seen a surge in major transactions, with 42% of significant licensing deals in 2025 originating from China [9]. Valuation Shifts - The valuation of unprofitable biotech companies is shifting from a focus on technical pipelines to a comprehensive assessment of commercialization capabilities, indicating a maturation of the investment landscape [13]. - The market is beginning to adopt a "finality thinking" approach to pricing unprofitable drug companies, allowing for short-term losses if core products demonstrate global competitiveness [13]. Future Outlook - The Chinese innovative drug sector is at a critical juncture, with expectations of the first blockbuster drugs generating over $6 billion in annual sales within the next 3-5 years, supported by strong clinical research capabilities and a global commercial framework [16].