永辉还没“变胖”，名创却快“挤不出奶”了

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's financial performance in Q1 2025 shows revenue growth but declining profits, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid expansion efforts [1][5][9]. Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue increased by 18.9% year-on-year to 4.427 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to 587 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin drop from 16.6% to 13.3% [1][5]. - The increase in costs is attributed to significant spending on IP licensing, which rose by 39.6%, and overseas direct store expenses, which surged by 71.4% [1][5][10]. - Same-store sales experienced a slight decline, indicating that revenue growth is heavily reliant on new store openings rather than improved operational efficiency [1][7]. Expansion Strategy - Miniso's overseas direct store count reached 608, up from 327 a year earlier, with overseas revenue growing by 30% to 1.59 billion yuan [5][10]. - The company is facing high operational costs in overseas markets due to a focus on direct and agency models, which increases expenses significantly [10][11]. Challenges in Domestic Market - The domestic market is nearing saturation, with a penetration rate of nearly 50% in first-tier cities, making further growth through new store openings increasingly difficult [7][9]. - Miniso's reliance on new store openings to drive growth is unsustainable, as same-store sales have not shown significant improvement [7][9]. IP Strategy and Market Position - Miniso has partnered with over 150 global IPs, boosting its gross margin from 26.7% in 2019 to 44.9% in 2024, but this reliance on IP licensing has led to increased sales expenses and potential market saturation [9][10][19]. - The company is perceived as a channel operator rather than an IP brand developer, which affects its market valuation compared to competitors like Pop Mart [19][20]. Acquisition and Reform Efforts - The acquisition of Yonghui Supermarket is seen as a strategic move to seek new growth avenues, but it has faced challenges, including internal power struggles and ongoing losses [11][12][21]. - Yonghui's reform efforts include upgrading the supply chain and closing underperforming stores, but these actions require significant capital and have not yet yielded positive results [13][16][21]. Future Plans and Market Positioning - There are plans to spin off the TOP TOY brand for a potential IPO to raise approximately $300 million, which could alleviate cash flow pressures on Miniso [17][19]. - The competitive landscape in the toy market is intense, and TOP TOY must establish a unique positioning to attract investor interest [20][21].