日元汇率失去方向感，或长期陷入胶着走势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen, influenced by the inconsistent tariff and currency policies of the Trump administration, leading to uncertainty in market direction [1][3][5]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear trend due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency [1][3]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar in January to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [3]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - Concerns over the potential negative impact of Trump's aggressive tariff policies on the U.S. economy have led to a sell-off in the dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, creating a "triple kill" scenario [3]. - The Trump administration has softened its stance on tariffs with major trading partners like China and the EU, which may influence the future direction of the yen [3][5]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of reciprocal tariff increases in early July raises questions about the progress of tariff negotiations and its potential impact on the yen [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - The market is highly sensitive to changes in Trump’s policies, which have affected speculative trading behaviors, particularly among hedge funds [3][4]. - The confirmation from U.S. and Japanese authorities that the current yen exchange rate reflects economic fundamentals may lead to a reduction in speculative positions [4]. - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of renewed market turmoil, which could further destabilize the yen [5].