学生贷款违约飙升至8%！美国560万人或陷信用危机

Core Viewpoint - The student loan default rate in the U.S. has surged to 8% in the first quarter of 2025, returning to pre-pandemic levels, indicating increased financial pressure on households and potential uncertainties for economic growth [2][5]. Group 1: Default Rate and Economic Impact - Approximately 5.6 million borrowers were marked as in default, with the overall default rate rising from 0.7% at the end of last year to 8% [2]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that the total monthly repayment for student loans will increase by $1 billion to $3 billion, potentially reducing the U.S. GDP by about 0.1 percentage points in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Credit Score Decline - Following the end of the federal government's student loan repayment and interest waiver measures, many borrowers experienced a significant drop in their credit scores, with about 2 million borrowers classified as "near-prime" seeing an average score decrease of 140 points [7]. - Approximately 400,000 "prime" borrowers (credit scores above 720) had an average score drop of 177 points, indicating a widespread decline in creditworthiness among borrowers [7]. Group 3: Default Risk and Demographics - The majority of newly marked default borrowers were already in subprime credit categories, but there is a rising number of defaults among "near-prime" and "prime" groups, suggesting that repayment pressure is spreading to a broader population [9]. - States with higher poverty rates, such as Mississippi, show significantly higher default rates, with up to 45% of student loan borrowers in default [9]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Borrowers facing repayment difficulties often attended for-profit colleges or two-year institutions, or dropped out before completing their degrees, highlighting the economic vulnerability of these groups [9]. - The Biden administration's SAVE plan, aimed at providing income-driven repayment options, is currently facing legal challenges, which could exacerbate financial pressures for millions of borrowers if the plan is blocked [9]. - Economists suggest that the current default levels may not have peaked yet, with potential for further deterioration in the coming months [10].