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全球债市新预警!
第一财经·2025-05-28 07:00

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing turmoil in the global bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term debt issues and the implications for both Japanese and U.S. bonds, highlighting structural fiscal challenges that remain unresolved [2][9]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - On May 27, Japanese bonds rebounded due to speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might reduce the issuance of ultra-long bonds, leading to a drop in yields to three-week lows [2][5]. - However, on May 28, the auction for 40-year Japanese bonds was seen as a "canary in the coal mine," with the bid-to-cover ratio falling to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating weak demand despite previous short-term positive signals [4][6]. - The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.365% before the auction, reflecting market concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][11]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The article notes that U.S. Treasury yields also fell on May 27, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6.25 basis points to 4.44%, but the overall outlook remains bearish due to ongoing fiscal concerns [2][9]. - Analysts express that the U.S. bond market is likely to remain in a bear market, driven by fiscal risks exacerbated by recent tax legislation that could add $4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury term premium is currently near its highest level since 2014, reflecting heightened anxiety over fiscal challenges and political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The article emphasizes that the structural fiscal issues in both Japan and the U.S. are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to continued volatility in bond markets [2][9]. - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds has weakened significantly, with major traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced interest, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [10][11]. - Japan's government is projected to face annual debt servicing costs nearing $230 billion over the next four years, raising concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal position [11].