证券时报·2025-05-28 13:09Core Viewpoint - The uncertain environment presents an opportunity for reform in China, with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on economic trends, technological innovation, and fiscal relations to guide the industry towards higher quality development [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The fiscal expansion is expected to focus on promoting consumption recovery and price stabilization, balancing short-term relief with long-term cultivation to address hidden debts and upgrade infrastructure investment [3][4]. - The overall GDP is projected to achieve around 5% growth despite tariff pressures, with exports expected to grow by 2.5% and fixed asset investment growth at approximately 3.8% [4]. Market Strategy - A bull market for Chinese equity assets is anticipated, with a significant shift in market style from small-cap stocks to core assets starting in Q4 2025 [1][5][6]. - The synchronization of economic and policy cycles among major economies (China, the US, and Europe) is expected to enhance macroeconomic resilience, potentially leading to substantial market gains [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - Key strategies include increasing allocation to Hong Kong stocks, returning to core assets, focusing on three resilient industry trends, and timing investments around critical points in Q3 [7][8][9]. - The Hong Kong market is showing systemic improvement in asset quality, with a recommendation for a minimum allocation of 45% in Chinese stock assets [7]. - Emphasis on core assets is crucial as they demonstrate operational resilience and are expected to outperform smaller stocks amid changing market conditions [8].