美债巨震！30年期美债收益率跌破5%，警报仍未解除

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market, highlighting the significant fluctuations in yields and the underlying factors driving these changes, particularly the impact of tax legislation and fiscal concerns [2][6][10]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, before experiencing a notable drop below 5% on May 27, marking the largest single-day decline since March [2][5]. - On May 27, yields across various maturities fell, with the 30-year yield decreasing by 8.65 basis points to 4.951% [5]. - Following a brief recovery, yields rose again on May 28 due to disappointing results from a Japanese bond auction, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield again challenging the 5% mark [5][8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Fluctuations - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields has been primarily driven by fiscal factors, including a proposed tax cut legislation and disappointing results from Japanese bond auctions [6][10]. - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to exacerbate the federal deficit, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [10][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposed tax cuts could increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, contributing to a potential "fiscal cliff" scenario [12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite a temporary easing of market concerns following a successful auction of two-year Treasury bonds, long-term worries about U.S. fiscal health remain prevalent [15]. - Analysts warn that the proposed tax cuts could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, with projections indicating a deficit increase of $614 billion in 2026 and $561 billion in 2027 [16]. - The relationship between the U.S. deficit and Treasury yields is expected to remain stable, with a 1% increase in the deficit correlating to a 0.78% rise in 10-year Treasury yields [16].