美联储重磅发布！多位官员发出警报

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging trade-off between rising inflation and increasing unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments in the coming months [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite fluctuations in net exports [3]. - The unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, and the labor market remains strong, although inflation rates have been rising [3]. - Inflation has eased since its peak in 2022 but remains a concern, with risks of acceleration due to new trade barriers [3][4]. Inflation Concerns - Participants in the meeting expressed concerns that inflation could be more persistent than expected, with some companies potentially using the price environment to raise prices [3][4]. - There is a risk of upward pressure on prices, which could contribute to inflation [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is currently viewed as "roughly balanced," with low layoffs, but some companies are beginning to limit or pause hiring due to increasing uncertainty [3][4]. - Officials have downplayed the labor market's role as a primary driver of inflation [4]. Financial Market Volatility - There has been increased volatility across asset classes, with unusual patterns observed, such as falling stock prices alongside rising long-term Treasury yields and a depreciating dollar [4]. - This divergence may indicate deeper shifts that could have long-term economic implications [4]. Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions if inflation proves to be more persistent while growth and employment prospects weaken [5]. - A cautious approach is deemed appropriate until the impacts of government policy changes on the economy become clearer [5]. Future Projections - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, where new forecasts for inflation, employment, and economic growth will be presented [7]. - Current expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain policy rates in June and July but may consider rate cuts in September and December [7]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to remain stable, complicating the Fed's decision-making on interest rates [7].