势银研究报告 |《可持续航空燃料市场分析与未来展望》

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity and complexity of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as a core means for decarbonizing the aviation industry, highlighting the progress in both global and Chinese markets, and the critical role of technology, cost, and policy coordination [3]. Key Data - As of March 2025, only 15% of the built SAF projects are operational compared to the planned capacity, indicating that most projects are still in the planning stage [4]. - The price of SAF in 2024 is expected to decrease significantly compared to 2023, yet it remains approximately three times higher than traditional aviation fuel [5]. - China's aviation fuel consumption in 2024 is projected to exceed 2.19 million tons, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with an optimistic forecast of 2.19 million tons of SAF demand by 2030 [6]. Industry Certification - By March 2025, there are four SAF production companies in China that have received airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration, 11 companies with ISCC/RSB CORSIA certification, and 12 companies with ISCC-EU certification [7]. Market Development - The commercial development of SAF in China is relatively late, with only 10% of the planned total capacity currently built [10]. - The HEFA process currently has the lowest production costs, while the PtL process shows the greatest potential for cost reduction [12]. SAF Technology and Market Analysis - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of SAF production processes, including HEFA, FT, AtJ, MtJ, and PtL, as well as the current state of the global SAF market, including blending policies and airline commitments [14][15]. - It also covers the development status of SAF in various regions, including the EU, UK, and US, alongside China's policy, demand, and project analysis [15]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that understanding the economic viability of SAF and its market dynamics is crucial for stakeholders in the aviation industry [16].