退出盛宴，来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting experiences in the VC/PE industry, highlighting significant exits and returns in 2023, while also noting the challenges faced in the previous years. It suggests that 2025 may be a year of recovery for exits, with several high-profile cases already indicating substantial returns for investors [2][9]. Group 1: Exit Performance - High-profile exits have been reported, such as Hillhouse Capital's reduction in BeiGene, yielding over 20 times return, and Fengqiao Capital's complete exit from Pop Mart, achieving a 400 times return [2][6]. - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund's reduction in SMIC has also shown returns exceeding 10 times [7]. - The total equity value of VC/PE exits via IPO in China for 2024 is projected at 199.9 billion yuan, a 39% decrease year-on-year, and less than one-fifth of the peak in 2021 [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a rapid recovery, with significant valuations for companies like Horizon Robotics and Mixue Ice Cream, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [11][12]. - The valuation gap between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has reversed, with Hong Kong IPOs becoming the preferred exit route for many institutions [11][12]. - Despite the excitement in the Hong Kong market, the overall number of IPOs remains low, with many new listings still facing challenges such as share price declines [17][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while 2025 may be a year of significant exits, not all firms will benefit equally, with a clear divide between high-performing and struggling companies [14][18]. - The overall IPO environment remains cautious, with A-share IPO approvals not significantly increasing, indicating a selective recovery in the market [15][16]. - The disparity in exit opportunities highlights the competitive nature of the VC/PE landscape, where only a few firms may achieve substantial returns while others may continue to face difficulties [18].