近4500只个股上涨！关税被“叫停”，对A股影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - A-shares have experienced a significant rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and nearly 4,500 stocks increasing in value, influenced by the recent halt of tariffs by the U.S. International Trade Court [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariff Suspension - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost risk appetite in the market, leading to a collective rise in major indices [3][4]. - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision to block the implementation of tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 is a key factor in the market's positive response [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment enhances the investment attributes of A-shares, with a focus on a "dividend bottom + small-cap growth" strategy for portfolio allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for China - If tariffs are fully lifted, it could significantly alleviate the negative impact on China's exports and nominal GDP, which are currently projected to be dragged down by 5.5% and 1% respectively due to existing tariffs [5][7]. - The best-case scenario for China would be the complete cancellation of the 20%+ reciprocal tariffs imposed this year, although this is considered unlikely [7][9]. - In a more optimistic scenario of full tariff removal, China's exports could potentially achieve a growth rate of around 4% for the year [9]. Group 3: Beneficial Sectors - The consumer electronics sector stands to benefit from reduced export costs if tariffs are suspended, potentially leading to improved performance for companies in this space [10]. - The new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors may also see profit margins expand due to lower tariffs on components, enhancing their competitiveness in global markets [11]. - The cross-border e-commerce and logistics sectors could experience improved profit margins and increased business volume as a result of lower tariffs and enhanced customs efficiency [12]. Group 4: June Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that June may present challenges for the market, with mixed performance expected across different asset classes [14][15]. - The past decade shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had an equal number of up and down months in June, while smaller indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index have generally performed better [15][17]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors such as consumer services and growth industries, including home appliances, automobiles, food and beverage, and technology, which have historically shown higher probabilities of excess returns in June [18][19].