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分时电价改革加速,谁承压、谁受益?

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to the time-of-use electricity pricing mechanism across various provinces in China aim to encourage off-peak electricity usage, alleviate pressure on power generation companies and the grid, and support the consumption of renewable energy [2][3]. Group 1: Time-of-Use Pricing Adjustments - Jiangsu Province has implemented a new time-of-use pricing structure that adjusts the pricing basis from user-to-door electricity prices to commercial user purchase prices, optimizing the peak and valley floating ratios [2][7]. - Other provinces like Shandong and Sichuan have also made significant adjustments to their time-of-use pricing mechanisms, with Shandong introducing a "five-segment" pricing system and Sichuan adjusting seasonal peak, flat, and valley durations [4][5]. - The adjustments are driven by the increasing electrification of demand and the growing share of renewable energy in the power system, necessitating a more dynamic pricing approach to reflect real supply and demand relationships [6]. Group 2: Impact on Users and Companies - The reforms are expected to benefit small and medium enterprises by allowing them to better manage production schedules and reduce energy costs, while also putting pressure on some renewable energy and storage projects to seek new value creation avenues [3][10]. - In Jiangsu, the new pricing mechanism is projected to reduce the peak-valley price difference from approximately 0.85 yuan/kWh to around 0.65 yuan/kWh, impacting the profitability of commercial storage projects [9]. - Companies like Xichang Electric Power and Leshan Electric Power have reported that the adjustments to the time-of-use pricing mechanism will negatively affect their operating performance, with estimated profit reductions of 5.4 million yuan and 8.5 million yuan respectively for 2025 [12]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The introduction of a long-cycle settlement trial for the electricity spot market in Jiangsu is expected to create new opportunities for storage companies, moving away from a reliance on fixed peak-valley price arbitrage [10][11]. - The adjustments in time-of-use pricing are anticipated to lead to a more flexible and market-oriented operation of the electricity market, requiring companies to adapt their strategies accordingly [9][10].