日本学历贬值30年：博士批量失业、大学生无奈啃老

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "degree devaluation" in the context of the increasing number of university graduates in China and draws parallels with Japan's historical experience during its economic downturn in the 1990s [4][20]. Group 1: Current Situation of Graduates - In 2024, the number of university graduates in China is expected to reach a record 12.22 million, leading to the largest job-seeking wave in history [4]. - The offer acquisition rate for master's and doctoral graduates is only 44.4%, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, which is lower than the 45.4% for undergraduate graduates [4]. - The trend of increasing university graduates is projected to continue until 2038, when it will peak at 14.45 million [4]. Group 2: Historical Context from Japan - In the 1980s, Japan experienced a booming economy where university graduates were highly sought after, with many receiving multiple job offers before graduation [5][6]. - The economic bubble burst in the 1990s led to a drastic decline in job opportunities, with the employment rate for graduates dropping significantly [8][9]. - The term "lost generation" emerged in Japan, referring to those who graduated during the economic downturn and faced severe employment challenges [12]. Group 3: Government Responses and Consequences - The Japanese government implemented various measures to address the employment crisis, including increasing the number of graduate students and promoting vocational training [13][15]. - Despite these efforts, the oversupply of graduates and the lack of corresponding job opportunities led to a rise in "high-education refugees" and "浪人博士" (wandering PhDs) [15][19]. - The shift towards non-regular employment, such as temporary and contract work, became prevalent, further complicating the job market for graduates [16][19]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - Japan's experience highlights the importance of aligning higher education with market needs and the dangers of overemphasizing degree attainment without corresponding job creation [21]. - The article suggests that economic growth and innovation are crucial for creating job opportunities that can absorb the increasing number of graduates [21].